PREAKNESS STAKES - RUNNERS AND RIDERS - CJRFANTASY

Thursday, 15th May -  Two weeks on from a spectacular Kentucky Derby, the world’s finest thoroughbreds head to Pimlico Racecourse, Baltimore for the second leg of the prestigious Triple Crown. Whilst there will be no Triple Crown winner this year with Derby victor Sovereignty heading straight to the Belmont Stakes, a stacked field - headed by Derby runner-up Journalism - will travel to the ‘Old Hilltop’ in the hunt for a share of the whopping $2 million purse. 

In order of XP: 

• Journalism (10 XP) – led into the straight in the Kentucky Derby but was mowed down late on by eventual winner Sovereignty. A good run nonetheless, and jockey Umberto Rispoli thought the Santa Anita Derby winner would have come out on top in the ‘Run for the Roses’ had it not been a sloppy track. Connections will be hoping the horse is no worse for the run – which was only two weeks ago – as well as better track conditions. If so, he looks the one to beat. 

• Sandman (20 XP) – won the G1 Arkansas Derby in March, before a somewhat disappointing seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. The draw, and possibly the ground, wouldn’t have helped that day and connections – which include social media influencer Griffin Johnson – will be hoping for an improved display, despite jockey Jose Ortiz deserting him for Clever Again. Trainer Mark Casse won the 2019 Preakness with War of Will. 

• River Thames (25 XP) – twice-raced three-year-old who comes into the Preakness a fresh horse, having opted to skip the Kentucky Derby. Finished second to subsequent Derby winner Sovereignty on his first start, before a respectable third of seven in the G1 Bluegrass Stakes at the start of April. Looks set to improve once again and should be in amongst it turning for home. 

• Clever Again (25 XP) – lightly-raced son of Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh who has won his last two starts by 7 ½ lengths, including the Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn Park in March. Highly unexposed and could be anything.  

• Goal Oriented (30 XP) – the only undefeated horse in the race. Of course, he’s run only twice and never in a Stakes race. Won a three-runner allowance optional claiming race in April at Churchill Downs over an extended mile, making all under jockey Flavien Prat. Prat returns, seeking to help trainer Bob Baffert break his own record of eight Preakness titles. 

• Heart of Honour (70 XP) – a fascinating contender from UK, who has never finished outside the top two in six career runs. Beaten by a nose most recently in the G2 UAE Derby on Dubai World Cup night and looks worth a crack at this contest. Trainer Jamie Osborne saddled his 2014 UAE Derby winner to a sixth-place finish in the Belmont Stakes – so it’s a similar tried-and-tested route – with his daughter Saffie on board this time around.  

• American Promise (100 XP) – son of Triple Crown winner Justify who finished 16th in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, albeit suffering interference. Came into that race off an impressive victory in the Virginia Derby and connections will be hoping the three-year-old can tap back into that early promise. 89 year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas will be looking to equal Baffert’s record and emulate last year’s Preakness victory with Seize The Grey. 

• Gosger (125 XP) – impressive in just his third career start when running away with the G3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in April. Trainer Brendan Walsh felt the Derby would come too soon, but remained optimistic about the Preakness. Hard to know just how high his ceiling is. 

• Pay Billy (125 XP) – $60,000 purchase who qualified for the Preakness by winning the Federico Tesio at Laurel Park in April. Has won four of his last five starts but this represents his stiffest task to date and looks up against it. 

Trends: 

• Untrustworthy Favourites – no favourite has won the race since Justify in 2018. 
• Early Pace Needed – Six of the last 20 winners were leading after the opening half-mile, and 16 of the last 20 were racing in the front half of the field after the opening half-mile. Conversely, only three Preakness winners in the last 20 years have rallied from more than five lengths off the pace after the opening half-mile. 
• Avoid the Derby – Six of the last eight Preakness winners (including the last five in a row) did not run in the Kentucky Derby. 
• Value Graded Form – 25 of the last 30 Preakness winners had previously won a graded stakes race, 18 of which had won at Grade 1 level. 
• Ignore the Defeats – seven of the last 10 winners, and 12 of the last 20, entered the Preakness off a defeat. 
• Trust Baffert & Lukas – Hall of Fame trainers Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas have excelled in the Preakness. Baffert has won the race a record eight times, including four of the last 20. Lukas has won the contest seven times, including two of the last 20. 

CJRF Tip: 

1st – River Thames  

2nd – Journalism 

3rd – Heart of Honour 

ENDS